Published Paper!

My paper based on my PhD research, “Estimating Product Cannibalisation in Wholesale Using Multivariate Hawkes Processes with Inhibition”, has been published in the Annals of Applied Statistics. This work addresses challenges in understanding how closely related products may compete with one another in a wholesale setting.

In the paper, we propose a novel modelling framework based on multivariate Hawkes processes with inhibition to estimate product cannibalisation. Each product is treated as a separate dimension, and inhibition between dimensions are interpreted as evidence of product cannibalisation. A key contribution is a new condition for stability in any Hawkes processes that allow inhibition. We also develop a Bayesian estimation approach with a dimension-independent prior, and apply our methodology to wholesale sales data provided by our industry partner.

This set up enables us to quantify how the purchase of one product may suppress sales of another. The paper offers both methodological innovation and applied relevance. The full paper is available in the latest issue of the Annals of Applied Statistics. Read it here!

Reference
Isabella Deutsch. Gordon J. Ross. “Estimating product cannibalisation in wholesale using multivariate Hawkes processes with inhibition.” Ann. Appl. Stat. 19 (1) 235 – 260, March 2025. https://doi.org/10.1214/24-AOAS1957